Market commentary

I am somewhat aghast to read of the latest tweet from the Chinese embassy in the United States. It reminds me of a disturbing historical pattern of conflict and caused me to consider the similarities with past pre-war triggers. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

Here’s something curious: the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) – an organisation with over 160,000 members – has a sentiment survey that offers insight into the opinions of individual investors by asking them their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months. They have been conducting the weekly survey of members since 1987.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

Liquidity is a concept critical to understanding investment markets.

Back in mid to late 2022, we wrote several posts on our blog and articles in The Australian, compelling investors to consider and pay attention to the very low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios at which equities were trading. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Market commentary

First, it was DeepSeek, and now it’s tariffs. Investors will need to endure more volatility, while those hoping for cheaper prices to enter the market might have their wish granted this week.

You might not think Trump’s imposition of tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China has anything to do with your Australian equity portfolio but think again. The next few days could see markets move materially. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Market commentary

I sat down with Paul Turton to discuss what’s been happening in investment markets so far this year. They talked about the impact of President Trump’s inauguration on markets and the continued strong performance of the Magnificent 7 Technology stocks.

David also shared insights into the opportunities for small-cap stocks, which have underperformed large caps by 30 per cent in recent years, and explained why the current economic climate might finally work in their favour. He gave his perspective on interest rate cuts, the cost-of-living pressures affecting Australians and businesses.

It’s a great conversation if you are keen to hear about what’s been shaping markets in 2025. You can listen to my segment from the 31:40-minute mark here: ABC Newcastle – How is 2025 shaping up for investment markets?

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Radio

Last year, the S&P/ASX 200 Index, along with many of its largest companies, reached multiple record highs. This raises the question – is the market now overvalued? And if so, is a correction imminent? I joined Sean Aylmer on the Fear + Greed podcast to explore these questions. Looking at traditional indicators like the price-to-book ratio and the CAPE Shiller P/E, the market does appear overvalued. However, a deeper analysis suggests that valuations might not be as stretched as they seem, or that there are valid reasons for some ratios to be elevated. As long as disinflation continues alongside positive economic growth, I believe quality companies will continue to perform well. Listen to the full podcast below:

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Podcast Channel

In this Livewire article, I highlight key factors for investors to watch in 2025. The rise in tech stocks, including the Magnificent Seven, is driven by share price momentum fuelled by disinflation and economic growth, rather than strong fundamentals. While concerns about a market correction persist, I argue that shifts in liquidity and investor sentiment are more likely to trigger downturns than elevated valuation metrics. You can read the full article here:

Livewire: What matters for 2025 and beyond

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, On the Internet.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, On the Internet

I joined Sean Aylmer on the Fear + Greed podcast to discuss one of the current key themes for markets – artificial intelligence (AI). AI is shaping the world and transforming industries including healthcare and transportation but there are always winners and losers. So which companies are thriving and which are most at risk? Find out in the full podcast below:

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Podcast Channel

The Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), which rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023, continued the strong upward trajectory, increasing a further 63 per cent, on average, over calendar 2024.
continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

Massive demands on liquidity from the refinancing of about US$70 trillion of global debt taken up when interest rates were zero would leave less liquidity to sustain the rally in shares, bitcoin and everything else. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN In the Press, Market commentary